Gold Price

I believe in one God, and no more; and I hope of happiness beyond this life. I believe in equality of man, and I believe their religious duties consists of doing justice, loving mercy, and endeavouring to make our fellow creatures happy. My own mind is my own church. Thomas Paine

Gold prices hit a new high this week at more than $1,700 an ounce. If you are thinking about cashing in your gold, here are five things you need to know first.

1. An ounce of gold jewelry isn’t worth the same as an ounce of gold. Since pure gold is soft, other metals — or alloys — often are added when making jewelry, which results in the gold’s karat rating. The higher the karat, the greater percentage of gold. For example, 24k is 99.9 percent pure, 18k is 75 percent pure, 14k is 58.5 percent, and that 10k college ring in your dresser is 41.7 percent pure.

2. To further complicate the math, an ounce of gold isn’t a true ounce, but a troy ounce, which at 31 grams, is not the same as a traditional ounce, which is 28 grams.

3. The price of gold fluctuates with the markets. With the current economic uncertainties in the United States and abroad, many investors are buying gold. If the United States doesn’t raise the debt ceiling, experts expect the price of gold to continue to rise. To check the latest market prices for precious metals, visit kitco.com.

4. Before rushing out to sell everything in your jewelry box, keep in mind that sentimental value may exceed market value. An heirloom bracelet might be worth more to you as is than it would be to a jeweler melted down. Likewise, decorative gem stones typically do not add value to jewelry that will be melted down, so have them removed before selling.

5. Shop around to get the best price for your gold. Like with most financial decisions, it is always a good idea to get at least three estimates — especially if you are heading to a gold party.

I CAN think of only two good reasons gold is valuable: itas shiny and scarce. I reckon its popularity is a relic of the gold standard. If you think about it, other than shininess and scarcity, nothing makes gold intrinsically more valuable than dollars.

My colleague recently pointed us to Warren Buffetas take on gold. He favours stocks or real estate because, unlike land or a business, gold doesn’t have much productive value.

Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce — gold’s price as I write this — its value would be about $9.6 trillion. Call this cube pile A.

Let’s now create a pile B costing an equal amount. For that, we could buy all U.S. cropland (400 million acres with output of about $200 billion annually), plus 16 Exxon Mobils (the world’s most profitable company, one earning more than $40 billion annually). After these purchases, we would have about $1 trillion left over for walking-around money (no sense feeling strapped after this buying binge). Can you imagine an investor with $9.6 trillion selecting pile A over pile B?

Beyond the staggering valuation given the existing stock of gold, current prices make today’s annual production of gold command about $160 billion. Buyers — whether jewelry and industrial users, frightened individuals, or speculators — must continually absorb this additional supply to merely maintain an equilibrium at present prices.

A century from now the 400 million acres of farmland will have produced staggering amounts of corn, wheat, cotton, and other crops — and will continue to produce that valuable bounty, whatever the currency may be. Exxon Mobil (XOM) will probably have delivered trillions of dollars in dividends to its owners and will also hold assets worth many more trillions (and, remember, you get 16 Exxons). The 170,000 tons of gold will be unchanged in size and still incapable of producing anything. You can fondle the cube, but it will not respond.

But because gold is in finite supply and there’s a history of using it as currency, itas often cited as a good inflation hedge. Even if its intrinsic value is questionable, perhaps our fixation with gold as a safe haven is worth something. The thinking goes that if a central bank prints too much money, unleashing rampant inflation, gold will retain its value. Or imagine the mother of all tail events: if civilisation collapses we can still barter with gold. I donat have any evidence concerning whether or not gold will hold up in the latter scenario. But when it comes to the former claim, London Business School authors Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, in collaboration with the Credit Suisse Research Institute, recently published a report which shows that gold was not such a great hedge over the last 111 years.

If it were gold’s value would be fairly stable over time and realised inflation. The figure below demonstrates that’s not the case.

Its price may be correlated with expected inflation, but if you’re looking for a hedge, gold’s relationship with realised inflation is what’s important. Goldas real value usually does not decrease during bouts of inflation. But what strikes me, other than by historical standards how overpriced gold looks, is how volatile it is. In finance volatile assets are considered risky; itas baffling that gold is considered a safe haven for anything. If an investor is looking to speculate in the commodities market, investing in gold may be a fine idea. But if youare looking for safety, inflation-linked bonds, or even equity, is probably a better way to go.

I suppose it is shiny and scarce, but so are diamonds, platinum, or even copper. By that logic itas time to start stockpiling pennies.

James Turk, founder and chairman of Gold Money, answers questions on how to invest in gold and what could happen to the gold price

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